Coffee futures ended higher on Thursday, driven by growing concerns over dry weather in Brazil and weaker export volumes from Vietnam.
July arabica coffee (KCN25) rose by 3.25 cents, or 0.85%, to close at $3.25. July robusta coffee (RMN25) also gained, closing up $26, or 0.50%. The gains came as both varieties consolidated just below the highs seen last week.
Arabica recently hit a 2.5-month high, while robusta reached a 5-week peak, fueled by fears that Brazil’s upcoming coffee crop may be smaller than expected. On April 22, Rabobank forecasted a 13.6% year-over-year drop in Brazil’s 2025/26 arabica crop, bringing it down to 38.1 million bags. The bank attributed the decline to unusually dry weather that hurt flowering in key growing regions.
Brazil’s green coffee exports in March dropped 26% compared to the same period last year, totaling just 2.95 million bags.
Weather conditions continue to support higher prices. Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest arabica-producing region, received only 1.5 mm of rain in the week ending April 26—just 21% of the historical average for that period.
Robusta coffee also found support earlier this week after Vietnam’s National Statistics Office revealed a 9.8% year-over-year drop in coffee exports for the January-April period, totaling 663,000 metric tons.
However, gains were capped by news on Tuesday that Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, Conab, raised its 2025 total coffee production estimate to 55.7 million bags, up from 51.81 million bags projected in January.
Meanwhile, global demand concerns continue to cast a shadow over the market. Major importers like Starbucks, Hershey, and Mondelez International warned that the U.S. government’s 10% import tariff could raise prices further and hurt sales.
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