April 2025 saw contrasting coffee price trends across major markets, driven by currency fluctuations, supply challenges, and shifting demand patterns.
Brazil: Arabica coffee prices rose sharply due to a stronger Brazilian Real against the US Dollar and ongoing dry weather conditions impacting key growing regions. The next harvest, beginning in April, is forecasted to yield less coffee than last year due to persistent drought. Despite higher prices, Brazil’s coffee exports dropped by 27.7% month-on-month, totaling approximately 3.09 million bags, reflecting constrained international demand.
India: Arabica coffee prices saw a modest increase amid supply-side restrictions from lower production and reduced carry-over stocks. The USDA estimates India’s 2025-26 crop at 6.05 million 60-kg bags (363,000 tonnes), down due to weather-related yield issues and a 0.5% decline in cultivation area. Demand remains mixed; local consumption may rise with the summer season, but exports are expected to decline by over 10% due to tight supply.
Vietnam: Coffee prices fell notably in April, continuing a downward trend driven by weaker exports and reduced foreign demand. Domestic inventory pressures and increased US import tariffs have further burdened Vietnamese exporters, fueling market concerns about sustained price softness.
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